The Oregon Biz Report - Business News from Oregon

Oregon Economic Forecast Summary

Below are excerpts from the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, Sept. 2008, Oregon Economic Forecast. from Oregon Economic and Oregon Department of Administrative Services, Office of Economic Analysis.  Full report here.

The second quarter of 2008 would have been the 20th consecutive quarter of rising employment in the state. This five-year pace was cut short one quarter with a seasonally adjusted job decline of 1.7 percent. Except for the 1.6 percent job growth in the first quarter of 2008, the quarterly job gains have been below 1.0 percent since the second quarter of 2007. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, jobs increased in the second quarter by 0.4 percent.

Supreme Court Justice to Visit Willamette University

Posted by Nike Kern, Biz Reporter

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will visit the Willamette University College of Law in Salem on September 12 to  attend a number of public events, mark the law school’s 125th academic year and to kick-off a series of celebratory events.  Appointed by President Bill Clinton in 1993, the 75-year-old Ginsberg is the second woman to serve on the Supreme Court. In  2007, Forbes Magazine rated her as the 20th most powerful woman in the world and the most powerful female lawyer in the world.

New Housing Market Improving Faster than Expected

From Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting.

The latest month’s news isn’t stunning, but the recent trend has been better than I expected.  Sales of new homes were, depending on your favorite headline, either up, or lower than expectations.  Actually, the change in home sales was trivial. The good news, however, is that we are working off the excess inventory of new homes much faster than I expected–and I’ve been a big pessimist, so this is really good news.

Oregon’s Integra Telecom Named among Fastest-Growing Private Companies

Competitive Telecom Provider Records Three-Year Revenue Growth of 241.8%; Ranks No. 33 in Gross Dollars of Growth .  PORTLAND, Ore.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Inc. ranked Integra Telecom No. 1,557 on its annual ranking of the 5,000 fastest-growing private companies in the country and No. 33 in the category of gross dollars of growth. Between 2004 and 2007, Integra achieved revenue growth of 241.8%. The list is the most comprehensive look at the most important segment of the economy – America’s independent-minded entrepreneurs.

Home Sales & Inventory: No Good News

By Dr. Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting LLC,

The headline sounds like good news–”Home Sales Up”–but there is no joy in Mudville.  The “increase” was really a blip (in technical jargon).  In reality, sales are still low.

Another threat to Oregon small business

By Larry Huss    Wednesday, August 20. 2008

Oregon’s small business sector is about to get smacked by another unexpected and unwelcome hit. Already Oregon’s state economist has determined that Oregon has slipped into another recession (two consecutive quarters of decline in the gross domestic product – GDP) while the rest of the nation appears to have narrowly escaped a similar fate. The housing collapse has resulted in the bankruptcy of several builders and the loss of countless well paying jobs. The financial catastrophe caused by the ill-advised low equity and subprime mortgage practices has caused credit tightening at the very time that small business may need additional credit to bridge the economic downturn. And collectively they have sent the stock market reeling.

Weekly business-world news quiz 8/22

Test your knowledge on the key business and world news events.

1. Microsoft is turning to which celebrity to help promote its Window’s Vista?
A) Tom Hanks
B) Jerry Seinfeild
C) Jay Leno
D) Mike Phelps

Oregon Pump Prices Decline for Seventh Consecutive Week

Automobile Association of America Release: “Gas prices continue to fall. Oregon’s average for regular unleaded has dropped 38 cents from the record high set of $4.29 set on July 3. The statewide average falls eight cents this week to $3.91, and the national average declines for the 33rd day in a row, dropping seven cents this week to $3.73.” AAA Oregon Public Affairs Director Marie Dodds says, “At this rate, AAA is predicting a national average of around $3.60 by Labor Day and it could fall to $3.50 by the middle of September.”

Survey: Employers Have High Confidence They Can Control Health Care Costs With Proper Tools

- Nearly 75 percent have or want to have a wellness program with a health
risk assessment; fewer than 25 percent want taxpayer-funded universal

health care - United Benefit Advisors, LLC (UBA), one of the nation’s leading employee benefits advisory
organizations, today announced key findings from its 2008 UBA Employer
Opinion Survey, which delineates employers’ specific health care

Recession? Different Method, Same Answer

By Dr. Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting LLC,

Ed Leamer of UCLA has a very interesting discussion that relates directly to my recent post asserting that we probably weren’t in a recession.  Here’s the abstract of his paper:

Monthly US data on payroll employment, civilian employment, industrial production and the unemployment rate are used to define a simple recession dating algorithm that nearly perfectly reproduces the NBER official peak and trough dates. The only substantial point of disagreement is with respect to the NBER November 1973 peak. The algorithm prefers September 1974. In addition, this algorithm indicates that the data through June 2008 do not yet exceed the recession thresholds, and will do so only if things get much worse.

PC Club latest computer store to shut-down

By Guest Opinion,

A few weeks ago I bought a new computer from a PC Club store in Tigard and was surprised to find the stores suddenly closed.   The California based stores went under last week leaving many who had left their computers at the store for repairs in panic.

Study: Business Students Not Less Ethical than Other Students

CORVALLIS, Ore. -A new study by Oregon State University researchers finds that business school students do not differ from other students in terms of personal moral philosophies - a finding that contradicts some widely held assumptions about business students and business education.  Donald Neubaum, Jack Drexler and Erik Larson of Oregon State University, along with co-authors Mark Pagell of York University and Frances McKee-Ryan of University of Nevada-Reno, surveyed 1,080 business and non-business students. The study will be published in a forthcoming edition of the Academy of Management Learning and Education Journal.

State takes action against four mortgage brokers Cases

State takes enforcement action against four mortgage brokers Cases involve unethical behavior, falsified loan documents, training requirements

(Salem) — In its continuing effort to strengthen enforcement in the mortgage lending industry, the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services issued cease-and-desist orders and fines against four mortgage companies for violating Oregon’s mortgage lending laws. “Investigating complaints and taking enforcement actions when necessary are important ways we protect borrowers and prevent fraud in the mortgage market,” said David Tatman, administrator of the department Division of Finance and Corporate Securities.

Survey: Small Business Optimism at Recession Level

WASHINGTON, D.C.— The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism fell one point to 88.2 (1986=100) in July, establishing one of the longest strings of recession-level readings in the history of the survey. Half of the decline was due to weaker capital spending plans—the lowest reading since 1975. Lower earnings, fewer job openings and lower inventory satisfaction also posted substantial declines, but those were mostly offset by gains in expected real sales, business conditions and the percent of owners saying this is a good time to expand.

Oregonians Looking for Balanced Energy Policy Heading Into November Election

FreedomWorks Oregon Releases Poll Taken for Launch of the Campaign for Affordable and Reliable Energy

PORTLAND, Ore.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–FreedomWorks Oregon launched a major media and grassroots campaign today in Portland promoting the development of clean, affordable, and reliable sources of energy. The Campaign for Affordable and Reliable Energy (CARE) will promote sensible energy policy solutions to meet current and future demand and will also expose how anti-energy radicals are opposed not just to energy development, but to our modern way of life.

Nike Debuts New Team USA Basketball Creative

5 August, 2008 Ad features Marvin Gaye’s legendary rendition of “The Star Spangled Banner”BEAVERTON, Ore. (August 5, 2008) – As the USA Basketball Men’s National Team continues on its quest to reclaim hoops supremacy in international competition in Beijing, Nike is set to release a new commercial spot that captures the essence of the team’s selfless play and commitment to the squad’s ultimate goal, Olympic gold.

Oregon Entrepreneurs Network Announces 2008 Non-Profit Award Finalists

BRING Recycling to be honored at 15th OEN Annual Tom Holce Awards for Entrepreneurship Dinner:

[OEN release] July 28, 2008, Portland, Ore.- The Oregon Entrepreneurs Network (OEN) is pleased to announce the 2008 finalists and award recipient for the non-profit category of the OEN Tom Holce Awards for Entrepreneurship: BRING Recycling of Eugene, Oregon; Bonneville Environmental Foundation of Portland, Oregon; and Verde of Portland, Oregon.

House Democrats offer business agenda

Yesterday the Oregon House Democrats laid out their 2009 Roadmap for the future. The Roadmap includes increasing the corporate minimum tax to help reduce the tax burden on workers and small businesses.  Below is the section on job creation
(full text here):

House Democrats will work to create more family wage jobs in Oregon.
In 2007/08 – House Democrats invested in innovations to generate good paying jobs for more Oregonians. We made Oregon a national leader in renewable energy. We aided rural communities and agriculture by addressing future water and land use needs.

Consumer Surveys: Don’t Trust Them

By Dr. Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting LLC,

In graduate school I was taught to distrust surveys of consumer behavior.  “Look at what they do, not what they say,” was the lesson.  The Wall Street Journal reinforces that training with an eye-opening article about people lying to poll-takers.  One striking example is the discrepancy between answers to a live person on the telephone compared to entering answers on a computer form:

Went to church last week:     56% on the phone,     25% online
Gambled last month:           21% on the phone,     28% online
Donate to charity regularly:  67% on the phone,     57% online